Stock Market Timing & Analysis, Profitable Swing Trading
This page contains several weeks of stock market analysis and market timing videos that are updated each week.
This information is useful to determine an investment strategy for the upcoming week.
Stock Market Timing and Analysis is important because:
- 50% of a symbol’s movement is due to overall stock market action,
- 30% to the sector or industry to which the symbol belongs,
- and only 20% due to the security itself.
However, even though you can find symbols increasing in price in a down market, it helps to have the market and the industry providing extra help for successful trading and investing.
These videos provide insight into overall market action thereby helping evaluate stock market risk.
Access pre-screened stock and ETFs watchlists:
Visit here to view pre-screened stock watchlists, and ETFs.
To view additional videos, select “Market Analysis” in the Display Categories pull-down menu located in the right margin.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 21 – 5/23/2022
Back and forth action during the week put a damper on a bounce that might have led to a more sustainable uptrend.
Downtrodden Chinese retail sales and rising unemployment put a damper on sentiment in the first session and stock prices closed the day mostly lower.
Investors decided to pick up some beaten down tech stocks Tuesday and Wall Street rallied sharply but left the market with a “hanging man” (bearish) candlestick.
Inflation worries intensified mid-week following discouraging earnings from Target and Walmart and investors dumped stocks – confirming Tuesday’s bearish signal.
High inflation, a not hawkish enough Fed, and questionable economic growth continued to weigh on the market and stock prices ended mixed Friday.
However, the week ended with a bullish “hammer” candlestick with the market once again bouncing off support that extends back to Q1 2021.
For the week, the Dow notched its eighth straight week of losses, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq clocked their seventh.
This is where market timing shines.
Regular viewers of this Market Timing channel could have been out of the market since early December of 2021, avoiding the almost 20% price reduction in the broad market since then.
The carnage in the NASDAQ has been far worse at an almost 30% price cut.
Even worse, long-term holders of the popular ARKK fund are down a shocking 75% from the highs set in February of 2021!
This is what market timing is about – not the type that financial planners will tell you is impossible!
Market timing allows investors and traders to avoid large drawdowns and return with their portfolios largely intact when a sustainable uptrend returns.
So when will that be?
In last week’s video, I suggested that the market is hugely oversold and a bounce might be imminent and to get shopping lists ready.
Studies show that day-over-day movements in the broad market are not statistically significant but week-over-week action is more likely to indicate trend strength.
So we can analyze the daily chart for indications of a base or launching point for a sustainable uptrend and then look at the weekly chart for confirmation.
Watch this video for an analysis of the market from the weekly viewpoint and indications for a bounce from support on the daily charts.
Stock of the Week (also in this video):
San JuanBasin (SJT) continued to move up overall during the week and is nearing a prior high breakout of $12.39 Annual sales increased 463% over the last 12 months to $37.6 million. The leading 12-month forecasted earnings are $0.84 per share. Earnings are forecasted to grow at 53% per year.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 20 – 5/16/2022
A bounce seems pre-ordained in market timing media this week, how far up might a rally move broad market prices?
Last week stock prices plunged Monday as interest rate concerns caused investors to dump stocks.
The middle of the week was spent digesting interest rate increases and the ongoing inflation discussion.
Growth stocks led a broad-based rally Friday as the market appears to be finding a bottom of sorts.
This upcoming trading week has the potential to create a rally off the current oversold levels and a line of support that extends back to Q1 2021.
You can see these levels on the charts shown in the video.
If a rally occurs this week there is overhead resistance approximately 6 or 7% above where a stall out of a rally might occur.
A slight pull-back from overhead resistance might create a higher low as a new base is formed for a more sustainable uptrend.
If a strong bounce closes above this level the next resistance level is another 7 or 8% above.
Because a new uptrend has not yet been established it’s not time to jump back into the market 100% however, some testing with smaller positions seems reasonable.
This video also reviews some leading stocks from strong sectors that might benefit from a rally in the broad market.
Specifically, this video reviews 5 stocks from the 3 currently strongest sectors for swing positions: DMLP (Petroleum) NI, CMS, ED (Utilities), and RELL (Electronics).
stockmarket #swingtrading #stocks #markettiming
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 18 – 5/2/2022
Confirmation of a -1.4% move in 1st quarter GDP caused equity selling late in the week. What now?
As was suspected for the last few months, a 1.4% shrinkage of the US GDP announcement caused serious equity selling on Friday.
In addition to a reduction in GDP, many earnings announcements – even good ones – were mostly tainted negatively by horrible earnings guidance.
These economic conditions in addition to the Fed being 180% out of phase with inflation vs growth seem to indicate more pain to come – unless you are short the market in general!
The broad market had been perched on a critical support level that extended back to the early part of the year but has broken that support with almost double the 50-period average volume on both the weekly and daily charts.
That is a serious move down and creates a new 52-week low for the broad market.
New lows frequently lead to new lows in the same fashion that new highs frequently lead to new highs.
Even more concerning is that the next clear support level is approximately 7 to 8% lower.
Certainly, the market is technically oversold so a bounce in a bear market might be expected.
However, serious technical damage has been done and will need to be repaired before a reliable bullish trend can emerge.
Keep an eye on these critical levels to be able to detect when a stronger market has a chance of developing.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 17 – 4/25/2022
What are the possibilities of a bounce from this level after the Fed-induced dumping of equities?
The Federal Reserve all but guaranteed a 50 basis point interest rate increase in May that caused increased selling on Thursday and Friday of last week.
Two big down days late in the week increased the strength of the current downtrend with prices now generally slightly above support levels.
The question is will this support level hold or is there more downward price pressure likely to develop?
This video will explain the key levels and price action in order to identify a strengthening market.
In the meantime, prudent traders should consider stepping aside until the next up move is identified.
Aggressive traders should consider playing the market to the downside.
Also in this video is a short overview of historical interest rates and a discussion on interest rate inversions and their connection to recessionary periods.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 16 – 4/18/2022
Will the old stock market adage of sell in May and go away be appropriate this year?
Earnings season started this week with 7% of the S&P Companies reporting. Of those reporting so far, 77% have beaten their earnings estimates for the prior quarter, and 80% reported exceeding revenue estimates.
However, in a volatile week of trading, geopolitical tensions increased as Russia threatened to deploy missiles near Europe, and a mixed bag of earnings on the last day of the shortened trading week sent all three major indexes into a loss for the week.
This week’s video reviews the current market performance and what can reasonably be expected for the upcoming week of trading.
In addition, as a follow on from last week’s discussion on growth vs value stocks I will review the current performance of the ARKK ETF.
ARKK is a strong representation of growth stocks and is down over 60% from a price high near $160, what can be reasonably expected looking at the chart?
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 15 – 4/10/2022
Are you holding “value” or “growth” stocks? Value stocks are maintaining an uptrend while growth stocks are in a downtrend.
Across the broad market stocks, in general, seem vulnerable to another downturn if the market drops below its current support level.
If it closes below the current support level you can expect a possible drop of another 2% to the next support level.
With earnings season starting in earnest within the next two weeks or so, you can expect increased volatility while earnings results and projections are digested.
Be certain you know when earnings announcements are scheduled for your stock holdings so you can take appropriate steps to protect profits or protect your portfolio.
The market focuses on different strategies at different times. As mentioned above, value stocks are currently in favor.
Watch this video to learn how to easily perform this type of analysis yourself and in turn trade or hold the types of stocks that are currently in favor.
Holding only stocks that are in favor and avoiding the rest is an easy method to improve your trading and investing results.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 13 – 3/28/2022
Improving market strength from last week plateaued a little while the S&P500 led the way up.
Of the three major indexes, the S&P500 moved up again on Friday, breaking out of a short base built during the middle of the week.
The DOW and the NASDAQ marked time and ended the week less changed.
The broad market ETF – VTI – is nearing overhead resistance of the 200 Day MA and a price level that extends back to early February.
This video shows what to watch for during next week’s trading to determine if market strength will continue increasing or if a pullback and test of the break-out support levels is more likely.
This video also explores the charts of stock signals from the system during the week which includes stock symbols: WLL, CMC, PDCE, AA, LNG, and NUE.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 12 – 3/21/2022
Last week’s 3 up days completes the bullish pattern described in prior videos. How far can this go?
The market has shown a capability to move up sharply on just a tidbit of improving news from the Russian invasion.
So be aware this is still a mostly news driven market with volatility remaining at high levels.
Is this up move a prelude to new highs across the broad market?
Time will tell but certainly bullish opportunities are starting to show up more frequently.
This video also identifies hand-picked stocks and ETFs that are on my personal watchlist assuming this market move continues up.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 11 – 3/14/2022
The downtrend continues, here are some signs to identify safer market conditions for buying stocks.
All 3 major indexes ETFs the DIA, SPY, and QQQ continued their downward move this week and again on increasing volume.
Despite the occasional rocketing higher on daily charts, the overall trend is still down.
Big institutions show their conviction to the market by leaving evidence on stock charts.
Increasing volume on up days shows bullish conviction, increasing volume on down days shows bearish conviction.
For less risk in your trading, you should follow the big money.
Notice I didn’t say “smart” money because no one really knows what’s going to happen.
Watch this video to be aware of evidence to indicate which price direction is more likely in the future.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 10 – 3/7/2022
View broad market timing information with a special focus on NASDAQ support and resistance levels.
Market Timing for fiscal week 10 starting on 3/7.
Review of the broad market with a follow-up focus on the NASDAQ.
On the broad market prices dropped on Friday with a gap from the overhead downward trendline.
Bullish divergence on the daily chart is still present but other indicators need to fall into line to provide evidence of a new base.
Trapped between overhead resistance and support from below will continue to produce volatility.
Focusing on the NASDAQ shows a significant support level below the current prices.
However, there are few signs of a new uptrend.
The support level between 12,000 and about 12,500 is likely to produce more bounces until the market can close firmly above the downtrend line.
This week’s analysis suggests continued caution for new trades, keeping stop-loss orders in place, and taking profits sooner – especially when price increases start slowing down on open positions.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 9 – 2/28/2022
Does last week’s trading action on Thursday and Friday show the market is in a new uptrend?
It might, but there are still plenty of bearish signals to overcome before risk-on trades are now in favor.
Watch this video for more analysis on what to expect in this week’s trading.
In support of the new uptrend indication are bullish divergences on the MACD indicator on most key index charts.
However, the sharp price movements late last week have not moved many other indicators at all.
The market moved up from a strong support level that goes back about 12 months, so a strong bounce here was expected.
Prices are still below the 200 and 50-day moving averages and the downtrend lines which will provide a strong level of resistance to overcome.
My suggestion is caution this week for new positions.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 8 – 2/21/2022
How close is the broad market to another 5% price drop?
Watch this video for potential moves.
The broad market has traced out a symmetrical triangle price pattern since the highs of late 2021.
Prices are currently resting on a critical level of support.
Should prices break through this level, the next support level is approximately 5% below.
Prices need to close above the downtrend line before a base can be created for the next bullish move.
Currently, price and volume and the supporting indicators I monitor are bearish, so continued caution on the long side is advised.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 7 – 2/14/2022
Are there any signs of a sustainable bullish move in the broad market at all?
Bueller? Bueller?
Unfortunately not yet.
All the signals I monitor indicate a higher potential for another leg lower than a new uptrend starting.
The market has already dropped approximately 8% from the highs late last year, many stocks have dropped substantially more.
Some stock price decreases on the NASDAQ have been particularly painful.
NASDAQ issues as a whole are more sensitive to interest rate increases than other stocks.
You should consider preparing for what might happen if the market drops below the current level of support.
My analysis shows that a drop below current levels includes the potential to move another 7% lower.
See the analysis and critical support levels in this video.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 6 – 2/7/2022
The market has to be closer to a bottom now, right? Yes, I agree, but how close is a new uptrend?
Find out what to watch for in this informative video to be able to identify a dependable price resurgence when it happens.
This week’s market action exhibited the increased volatility I have been expecting since late November.
The job numbers came in favorable last week at an increase of 467,000 jobs in January but a revised number of almost a million additional jobs for Nov/Dec.
Clearly, the government can’t correctly count how many people are working with any degree of accuracy – at least in the short term.
Increasing jobs can be good and bad.
Good – more people are working.
Bad – more people working makes the fed want to increase interest rates at a faster pace.
My view is that the current hyper-inflation is a result of dollar printing presses working overtime, not job count increases.
So the fed is in a real bind.
All these factors create stock market headwinds.
Can the market overcome these negatives and resume the uptrend?
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 5 – 1/31/2022
Following last week’s price action, a bounce is likely. How far can any bounce be expected to go?
Last week’s action might have created a base in the stock market that might be able to launch a quick move up starting this week.
Is any bounce likely to create a new dependable uptrend though?
The market still will need to move above the 200 and 50 day moving averages to return to a more bullish mode.
Before the market can challenge the moving averages it will need to move above and close above the downtrend line as shown in this video.
This week’s video also reviews the current stock watchlist AND a portfolio analysis of the results of buying this week’s selections at the top of the market last November.
The stock selections increased over 5% during that time period while the market lost over -5%!
That is the benefit of staying connected to each week’s stock watchlist.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 4 – 1/24/2022
What will a stock market bottom look like? See how to recognize when a new uptrend has started.
What will a stock market bottom look like? See how to recognize when a new uptrend has started.
Market timing strategies detailed in these videos would have prompted traders to start taking profits around thanksgiving.
Since the end of November, the broad stock market has fallen around 11 to12% depending on what indicator is used.
The NASDAQ has experienced an even faster drop with many leading stocks now down around 50%.
This “inside rot” is easily seen by the advance/decline line on the NASDAQ as shown in this video.
When should traders consider getting bullish again?
Watch this video for insights on what a bottom might look like and how to recognize one.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 3 – 1/17/2022
There is now sufficient market action to construct a downtrend line across the tops of the market action since the highs of late December.
Now the market has to accomplish several feats before a new uptrend can be established.
1) Prices need to close above the downtrend line
2) Prices need to close above the old uptrend line
3) 1 & 2 need to occur before a successful assault on the Nov/Dec highs will be successful.
Now, that doesn’t mean that a meaningful rally cannot occur until all 3 items are accomplished but in the short term the market looks vulnerable to more pullbacks.
Also, in this video is a review of the list of the top stocks and where you can download either a PDF file or Excel compatible file.
You can view the video here or at the link below:
https://youtu.be/BwNAB0w6f5Q
stockmarketanalysis, #markettiming, #swingtrading, #investing, #trading,
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 2 – 1/10/2022
With the major indexes looking a little tarnished last week what should we look for this week?
Of the 3 major indexes – the ones the media likes to focus on – stocks traded on the NASDAQ are the weakest of the 3.
Because of their overwhelming effect on the technology indexes, giant stocks such as AAPL, FB, etc continue to prop up the numbers to some extent.
But what if they weren’t?
Bloomberg reported this week – “Number of Nasdaq Stocks Down 50% or More Is Almost at a Record”.
This can be viewed either as a buying opportunity or an indication for an even more disastrous market development.
With the indexes perched right on – or a little below support – can the market recover some wind for another push up?
Watch this video for insights on what to watch for and where you can obtain the list of top stocks watchlist published each week.
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 52
According to recent media prognosticators and other crystal ball readers, the stock market is likely to increase by 22% in 2022.
Or maybe not…
Other “experts” are appearing to center around a 7% loss.
That’s a pretty big spread – and who knows where they get these numbers from.
So who to believe?
My suggestion is that you tune out from those predictions and react to the direction the market is trending that is in line with your trading strategy.
This video reviews where the major indexes are at the present time and what you should watch for especially in the first week of trading in 2022.
stockmarketanalysis, #markettiming, #swingtrading, #investing, #trading
Stock Market Analysis and Market Timing for Week 50
As volatility increases in the stock market, many people are asking about an end of year rally.
An end-of-year rally appears to be less of a possibility as time slowly expires.
There is only a week left before Christmas and only 8 trading days before the end of the year arrives.
So any end-of-year rally needs to get started quickly if it’s going to happen at all.
The problem is that there are so many negative signals on the charts that the possibility looks a little dismal.
So yes I hear you say “that’s just the set-up for a rally”.
Yes, I agree.
However, I’d be watching for some positive market signs to be able to recognize the start of any upswing in prices.
Watch this video to know what to look for!
stockmarket #swingtrading #stocks #markettiming
Stock Market Analysis for Week 49
Hey Everyone,
I apologize for the background music in this week’s video. I had my system playing with the volume down and didn’t realize it was in my video until review.
Let me know if you like or dislike it?
Watch for a close above or a close below the channel shown in this video for the market to verify direction.
This video also shows you how I use the “Correlation” number that I have decided to include in the weekly top stocks list.
I review the most correlated stock which is currently GOOG and the least correlated stock which is TSLA.
I hope this helps, please like, share, and subscribe.
Comments are always welcome.
#stockmarket #swingtrading #stocks #markettiming
Stock Market Analysis for Week 48
What is necessary to complete a base in preparation for another move up? Find out on this video.
Last week I discussed where the market needed to start building a base for another move up.
This week’s video shows where we are in that process.
After a week of bearish activity with high volatility and increased selling activity, the broad market managed to hold above the uptrend line from March of 2020.
It appears to be threatening the support of that trendline.
Should the market move and close below that trendline it would provide additional evidence of a more severe price drop.
Also, I have added another series of stock signals to my main website, find out how to access them in this video.
stockmarket #swingtrading #stocks #markettiming
Stock Market Analysis for Week 47 (Ending Date 11/26/2021)
Will Friday’s COVID announcement create another 40% market drop like the first global lockdown?
The overall market was clearly building an interim top since 11/10.
The recent COVID announcement of the month sealed the deal on the recent topping pattern.
Recent trading pushed prices below the low point of the top which was bad enough and was a signal to take some profits.
Friday’s covid announcement pushed prices substantially lower with an opening gap and on increasing trading volume.
Will Friday’s announcement create another 40% drop in the overall market like the first global lockdown?
I hope not but we will have to watch and see.
This video also explains how to recognize tops and when the market is returning to a more bullish period.
Market Analysis for Week 46 (Ending Date 11/18/2021)
This week’s major indexes price action was a jumble of mixed signals.
What can that indicate for this week’s trading?
Next week is a shortened trading week with the market closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and shortened hours on Friday with a closing at 1pm.
So it’s relatively unlikely that any major move will occur unless some spectacular event occurs.
One item I like to keep my eye on is the advance/decline line which often points to an underlying rot in the market.
The advance/decline line looks a little worrisome on the weekly charts but might be sending some serious warning signals on the daily chart.
Watch this video to see an analysis of the advance/decline line as it relates to each major index on the weekly and daily time frames.
#stockmarket #swingtrading #stocks #markettiming
Market Analysis for Week 45 (Ending Date 11/12/2021)
The start of the week looked precarious as inflation fears surfaced once again.
By Friday it seems the risk-off mentality turned around to risk-on.
At the current price level, the market is at a technical cheap price point.
However, there is still potential to pull back to a support level as shown in the video.
Watch for expected action in this video.
Also, join us for a live market session where we can discuss how to find stocks at technically cheap by points.
Just click this link on Wednesday at 10 AM Arizona time.
Market Analysis for Week 44 (Ending Date 11/5/2021)
Is the market ripe for a pullback? If so how far might it fall?
After a massive run-up on prices that started in mid-October, the market overall has become a little extended.
If you didn’t take on new positions in October then some caution might be advised as the market digests the recent gains.
I would tend to expect the market to build some sort of a base at this level with potentially a pullback to recent support levels.
Market Analysis for Week 43 (Ending Date 10/29/2021)
Signs are accumulating that the best 6 months in the market may work again this year, see why…
Historically the best 6 months of the year for US equities are between November 1 and April 30.
Signs are accumulating across many indicators that this strategy might work well again this year.
View this market analysis and market timing video showing what to watch for in this week’s market action.
Market Analysis for Week 42 (Ending Date 10/22/2021)
A neutral or cautious posture might be the best bet for next week until…
After a string of powerful up days after breaking above the downtrend line that we have discussed the past few weeks, last Friday’s action created a bar known as a “long-legged doji”.
In general, Doji type bars are recognized to represent indecision among traders.
The fact that last Friday’s Doji came right at the line of overhead resistance AND had legs that included the entirety of Thursday’s bar is especially notable.
It’s possible a pullback is likely, or perhaps this Doji will be a blip on the market’s path to new highs.
We’ll certainly know better what the path of least resistance is after a new bar closes either above or below the extremes of Friday’s Doji.
Market Analysis for Week 41 ( Ending Date 10/15/2021)
Sharp moves up puts all 3 major indexes into a bullish mode.
Has the uptrend resumed for sure?
Volume was a little tepid but there sure was a lot of buying taking place on Thursday and Friday. All 3 indexes closed above the downtrend line and near highs for the day – a good sign for trend reversal.
If you didn’t already you might want to consider tiptoeing back into the market with well-selected stocks from the top stocks or ETFs watchlists.
Also, keep an eye on the alert pages for early notification of profitable moves in both stocks and ETFs.